An updated version of Barley, Oat, Rye, Triticale Production Yield Estimation Report prepared by the National Grain Council, UHK and Wheat Yield and Evaluation Report and “Phenological Evaluation – Precipitation, Planting and Development Analysis in Cereals and Legumes, April 2023”, prepared by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) regarding the 2022/23 marketing year recapped in the below listing.
- In total Turkey received 374 mm of precipitation in the 7-month development period of the 2022/2023 season, which is 13% below the long-term average. The average precipitation rate decreased in all regions except the Black Sea.
- In the autumn season, rates decline in all regions except Southeastern Anatolia. The lack of rain in winter was evident throughout the country, making it the second winter season with the lowest precipitation in the last 63 years.
- In March, 96 mm of precipitation was recorded, which is well above the long-term average (56%). This value recorded March as the wettest month of the last 27 years. The increase in precipitation continued in April, and all regions received rain above the average for many years.
- The cultivation area for barley is 3.1 million ha in the season, which is at the same level as last year’s data of TURKSTAT. Considering 8 million tons of barley production in the last two decades, this season’s total crop will be likely 8.6 million tons with an increase of 7.5%.
- Oat will be planted in an area of 98.000 ha in this season, the production will remain at the same level compared to previous years and the total harvest is expected around 215.000 tons.
- Around 115,000 ha of rye will be planted in the season, and total production will be 300,000 tons with an increase of 7% compared to previous years.
- Considering the 5% increase in the triticale production area (105,000 ha), the triticale production yield can reach 335,000 tons by an 11.6% increase compared to the long-term level (300,000 tons).
- It is expected that the total production yield of cool climate cereals will be around 30.2 million tons, including 20,750 million tons of wheat, 8,6 million tons of barley, 215 thousand tons of oats, 300 thousand tons of rye, and 335 thousand tons of triticale. Although these data may vary depending on the regions with the May precipitation, they point to a fruitful year, and the vegetal producers’ hard work will be rewarded with the formation of realistic prices that are compatible with world prices and that evaluate the cost increases.
- A total of 374 mm of precipitation was received across the country from 1 October 2022 to 30 April 2023. The downfall during the seven-month plant development period was 13% (432 mm) below the long-term average and 9% (409 mm) below the previous production year. In all regions except the Black Sea Region, the downfall was recorded below the average of the last two decades.
- Rainfall decreased in all regions except for the Southeastern Anatolia Region (12% increase compared to long years) in the Autumn of 2022. The most significant decrease in precipitation this autumn was in Marmara and Aegean Region (54% and 50% decrease, respectively).
- The lack of rain seen in the autumn became evident by continuing in the winter season. Second lowest rainy season in the last 63 years has been experienced throughout the country. The highest precipitation decrease in winter varied according to the regions, ranging between 22% (Black Sea) and 55% (Central Anatolia).
- After the autumn and winter seasons with low rain, the downfall in March throughout the country increased, and 96 mm of precipitation was recorded, which was above the average for the last two decades (56%). With this amount, March raises concern about the wettest month of the last 27 years. The region with the highest precipitation increase compared to the long-term average was the Central Anatolia Region with 80%, while the increases in the precipitation in March in the Aegean and Marmara Region remained at a relatively limited level (26% and 20%, respectively).
- The period after March is critical for development and productivity in almost all our regions. April was also rainy. A total of 87 mm of precipitation occurred in April across the country, significantly higher than the last two decades and the previous season (51% and 3.5 folds, respectively). Precipitation was above the country average in all regions, the highest increase was in the Marmara and Black Sea Region with 82% (the highest level of the last 63 years), followed by the Eastern Anatolia Region with an increase of 57%, and the rate of increase in other regions was 11% (Southeast Anatolia) and 44% (Mediterranean). Thus, the high rainfall in these two months, which is critical for development and productivity, reduced the meteorological drought risk and hydrological drought severity for many of the regions, while preventing the formation of agricultural drought, and contributing to the formation of a positive atmosphere in the expectation of yield. However, May rates in Central Anatolia and Transition Regions, and June rates in Eastern Anatolia Region continue their effects on productivity.
- Turkey-wide April precipitation was above the normal and last year’s April rains. The downfall throughout the region was above normal in all regions, and the highest increase was recorded in the Marmara and Black Sea Region with 82%. April rainfall in the Black Sea Region was the highest in the last 63 years. Summer cereal and oat plantings have been completed in all regions except the Eastern Anatolia Region. Top fertilization and weed control continue in the high grounds of Central Anatolia and Eastern Anatolia Region and have been completed in other regions. The rainy month of April throughout the country has increased the risk of fungal diseases such as powdery mildew and rust, and spraying processes against such diseases continue. Grains were detected in Central Anatolia, in the inner parts of the Black Sea Region, in the coastal part of the Black Sea Region, at the end of the spike period in Southeastern Anatolia, Marmara Region, and at the end of the spike period in the Aegean and Mediterranean Region. In Balıkesir, plant growth was fast, especially in barley, on the bottom lands that received good rainfall locally, which caused the plant to grow in height and lie down in some areas.
- Efforts to detect sunn pests in the Marmara and combat sunn pests in the Mediterranean and Southeastern Anatolia have started. The grain is in the yellow death phase in Mersin province Silifke district and Hatay province and the harvest will begin in late May-early June. It has been observed that in the coastal part of Antalya, Buldan-Sarayköy, and Central plains, which are the first harvesting regions of Aydın and Denizli provinces, the grains generally completed the head and flowering stage, and the milk stage was seen in the early ones.
- The drought experienced in Adana in the previous periods caused the plant to be stressed, the plant height was shorter than normal and early spikes were observed, and this situation is expected to cause a slight loss in yield compared to the previous year. Due to the sudden temperature changes in the climate in Konya, the phenological development is about 10 days ahead of the normal period, especially in the 6-row early barley in irrigated lands. Plant development is in good condition throughout the country, and it is considered that the yield will be better than last year, especially in the Marmara and Southeastern Anatolia Region, in case of sufficient rainfall in May in the inner parts and in June in the high parts, and this situation will increase the wheat and barley yield throughout the country. Due to the rainy month of May, the harvest will start at the end of May-early June throughout the country.
